One great thing about politics is that you pretty much never know what tomorrow will bring, or even today. Amidst all the craze surrounding the not-too-unexpected it seems like Trump is taking it all home and will be the next Republican candidate running for the executive chair.
After losing in Kansas and Maine, Trump’s chance of winning the GOP nomination fell from 78% to 63%. In order for him to enter the Cleveland convention, he must have 1,237 delegates. This is where the problem resides as the number of delegates at the very moment may not add up to what he needs. The present Trump delegates seem to be standing loyal, however, many of these delegates which are bound to win on the first ballot are not personal supporters and are more likely to abandon him.
Besides this, Trump seems to be slowing down in his popularity, as shown by recent statistics. Donald Trump had to watch how he lost two major states to Ted Cruz.
The standings on number of delegates place Donald Trump at the lead with 44% so far, followed by Ted Cruz with 34%, and Marco Rubio with 17%. On March 15, when states begin to allocate delegates, led by the states of Ohio and Florida, Trump will need to win both in order for him to go for the other 50% in the remaining states.
If he succeeds, he would be entering the convention with enough votes for a first-ballot victory.
But even if Trump reached the magic number, could his candidacy still be stripped from him? The answer turns out to be yes, and it has to do with some intricacies in the laws governing GOP.
According to Elaine Karmack from Brookings Institute, “There are many ways to undo a first ballot, even if you have the magic number assuming the Trump delegates are not really loyal. They may start out to be loyal and change their minds.”